Tag Archives: Unemployment

US Economy Not Out of the Woods – Beware the Hype that Says Otherwise

You would think that, given the press coverage, much of the US economy is making great progress.  Apparently interest rates will continue to rise in response to the Fed’s feeling that the economy is doing well; near-full employment, GDP recovery, stock market growth, bond and dollar strength and all that jazz.  But these data points mask some other troubling items that suggest any recovery will likely be lopsided and even short-term based.  You only have to look under the covers at, say, unemployment, credit, or housing.  

  • Unemployment: despite low levels of reported unemployment many economists are concerned that the participation rate is at very low levels.  In other words, there is a lot of unemployed that is not being reported in the official KPI.  Some economists suggest that real effective unemployment maybe nearer 6 or even 9 percent.  Thus the result of economic growth may not lead to wage price pressure so soon, since the participation rate may improve the so pick up some of the slack.  This is good news overall but not if the Fed believes that they need to head off wage inflation likely to appear due to pressure on a really tight labor market
  • Consumer Credit:  Student and auto loans are running ahead at full steam, and mortgage debt continues apace.  While many firms have cleared their balance sheets of bad debts, consumers – which drive a massive part of the US economy – are amassing debt easier than looking for a hot meal.  On February 27th the US print edtion of the Financial Times carried an article, More US car owners behind on loan payments than at any time since 2009.  What is realy funky here is that if you go into the market now to look for a new or used car, you will be offered a loan for repayment now past the 5 year window.  It used to be that 5 years was the maximum and this was only a few years ago.  Now you can get a loan over 6 years or longer.  So the consumer part of the market is building up a nice bad-debt situation.
  • House prices: Yes, house prices have recovered, so we are told, to near pre-crisis levels.  So that part of the market is secure, right?  Wrong.  Home ownership is a its lowest levels in years.  It turns out that the buyers that are driving up prices are investment firms and conglomerates that are snapping up property then leasing them to. So first time buyers are being squeezed out.  The housing market has not recovered in the way we would want it or need it to for effective sustainment.

So we have a very lopsided economic recovery.  It is not stable and even the strong shoots are some challenging weeds hiding just under the covers.  Even if Trump can delivery on +2% GDP growth, I am not altogether sure that woudl mask the issues that are building up today.

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New Data Suggest Western Rate Rise Slips into 2016 – and then some…

After traveling to Asia for nearly two weeks and enjoying the warm and friendly nature of the region, I return to grumpy America where airport staff seem hardly inclined to focus on what a customer means.  Try comparing the welcome from airport staff at Narita (Japan), Changi (Singapore), and Atlanta (USA).  And this is with the same airline!  But beyond the grumpiness in me, due mainly I am sure to the lack of sleep in the last few days, I noted with some depression that several articles and data points, called out in today’s US print edition of the Wall Street Journal, point to a flagging world economy.  Data points to rate rises in the New Year, and even beyond, and less likely in 2015.

Worker Pay Stagnates on Soft Productivity – new data on wage growth and productivity suggest that firms are not yet having to pass pay increases onto employees.  This suggests that though unemployment is now low (5%), the apparent squeeze on employment is not real or widespread.  The lack of wage growth is one of the main factors holding the US Fed back, when it comes to a rate rise.  The lack of productivity is more long term and also effecting the West in general – and portends a deeper concern with the economy.  For without productivity growth, our abilty to pay ourselves more (for a given unit of work/output) will remain flat, or even fall.

Europe Sees Slow Growth – New forecasts for growth in Europe has led ECB leaders to reinforce the likelihood that they will infact increase QE in Europe, this promoting again the “race to the bottom” among competing currencies around the world.  Competitive devaluations by (first) the US, then the ECB, and then Japan, are in a viscious cycle.  The US effectively started the last round when it did not raise rates in September.  The ECB and Bank of Japan have signalled their willingness to increase QE and we are just waiting for them to take action.  This will likely push the US into respond through either delaying the rate rise again, or even adding to QE themselves.  

From today’s US print edition of the Financial Times: UK Central Bank Signals Later Rise in Rates – True to form the data around is attracting central bankers as a lamp attracts moths.  The Bank of England presented new data suggesting lower growth and inflation and this in turn signals a later rate rise.  The following is from the article in

All together now….

Unsurprising news: Household Wealth Up but we don’t feel it

The US print edition of the Wall Street Journal carried an article today (see Household Wealth Climbs to Fresh Highs) that is very unsurprising.  The report outlines findings from a new report from the Federal Researve, published Friday.  At the aggregate level American households have now more than recovered their wealth, compared to what they lost during the recession.  Apparently we all lost about $13tn in wealth before the crash, but have since increased it by $30tn.  Aren’t we special.  Aren’t we richer.

However the details show the real story.  Non financial assets have only barely exceeded what was lost during the recesion.  Non financial assets include the value of your home.  Financial assets are where all the real growth has been – that is, equities, mutual funds, and pension entitlements.  This is actually unsurprising of course, since this is perfectly related to the idea that Quantitative Easing (QE), the Fed’s main weapon to keep liquidity in the market and to envourage growth through greater investment, has actually feathered the nests of bond holders, the investor class, and big businesses that took advantage of cheap money in order to execeute share buy-backs, thus improving EPS and driving share prices higher.

What we should realize, and what no one should complain about, is that QE has done a lot to increase inequality.  The rich have definitely gotten richer; the very rich (I suspect) by a very big margin.  However the so called middle class has not gotten all that richer, and in fact other data related to median incomes suggest stagnation or even worse, reduction in wealth.  QE certainly helped create some growth in the economy, but not the kind of growth the Fed (or anyone for that matter) wanted.  We did not see, and continue to not see, the desired growth in capital investment that would drive higher paying wage growth. The employment growth, so positively held up by some, is for lower paying jobs (for the most part).  At the same time, the participation rate (those looking for a job) are at very low levels, and so overall wages remains flat.  

There is talk of a break down in the Phillips Curve that describes the relationship between inflation and unemployment.  In the past as unemployment has gone down, inflation has gone up.  We are currently experiencing a protracted period of low inflation, and growing employment.  We might even be close to the pre-crisis understanding of ‘full employment’ in the US.  But there are reasons to think that the definition of full employment has changed.  There are still many vacancies for high paying jobs, and too few well qualified people to fill them.  Wage pressure on the low paying jobs might be bulding, but it is taking too long to show through the numbers.  If more high paying jobs were filled, this might more quickly lead to more spending, and coupled with the growth in lower paying jobs, we might see a whole lot more wage pressure.  Even though commodity prices are low, we might start to see some inflation growth.  

Either way, gird yourself and await the next story: inequality across America has gotten worse.  Following that will be siren calls for greater redistribution of wealth.  Since the wealth created is not even real, such calls should be dismissed out of hand.  We should reduce Quantitative Tightening (QT) and increase interest rates to allow the market to start functioning again.  To ensure that the US does not get clobbered by the rest of the world, we should coordinate this policy with China, Japan, and Europe.  All regions should increase rates and increase QT at the same time.  In China this would help with higher commodity prices that would trigger inflation pressure around the world.  This will start to remove some of the most ugly market distortions ever seen.  Then we can figure out if and where inequality has or might changed.