William Gibson of the WSJ wrote on Sept 26th in the WSJ (see The Populist Wave Reaches Germany) an Opinion piece that neatly calls out the major issues now liberated in the recent general election that apparently awarded Chancellor Angela Merkel another four years in office. Mr. Gibson goes beneath the headlines to highlight what are actually disturbing issues.
The news that masks the issues suggest that the share of the popular vote won by the ruling coalition dropped from two thirds in 2013 to just over half. So far, ok. But as a result of declining popularity of the classic parties, the center-left Social Democrats have announced they will not participate in the next government. This is where issues emerge.
To creat a coalition this means Angela Markel has to work with either the Greens and the Free Democrats, or she and her party lead a minority government that limps along one parliamentary vote at a time, aligning with any party that works with her decision at the time. The bad news is the Greens are demanding the phase out of the internal combustion engine; the Free Democrats are skeptical of an ‘ever deeper’ EU. Their leader wants to phase out the European Stability Mechanism. All told its a deal with the devil or devils.
If that was not enough, there was a 7.9-point gain by the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, a far-right populist party. The AfD is incredibly the third largest party in Germany, and second largest in the old East Germany. This is more than incredible; this is significant and could be a sign of great and growing dissatisfaction. We all need to keep on guard. This situation can easily and quickly, and quietly, shift further.