Italy’s ‘No’ to Renzi is Not Like Brexit or Trump – They are all Different

It suits the press, a machinery that is benefited by the establishment, to associate Sunday’s referendum results in Italy as a rejection of establishment and so a similar vote as Brexit and then Trump. This is incorrect and a disservice to Italy.
Look at Renzi’s polices:

  • Less regulation
  • Increased labor flexibility
  • Lower taxes

As such he is as much Trump as he is Cameron or a May. And Renzi is pro-Italy and not so keen to follow along with rules set by Brussles designed to favor the Euro at one’s own expense. So on paper the result is akin to what happened in the UK and US. But let’s look at the data in more detail.

Brexit was not even a fair vote. Maybe none are but it really was an extreme case of bait and switch. The politics excelled over economics; and yet even if you looked at the facts, a vote for Brexit didn’t lead to the imminent disaster sworn by leaders at the time.  In fact, if one understands the situation of the euro, it was a smart move.  

But all the rhetoric concerning immigration turned the vote into a sham. Thus the UK voted for the right outcome but for the wrong reason.
Trump was, to that point, the first and real anti-disestablishment vote, pure and simple. It so happens that it seemed to look like Brexit which happened to appear as a vote against orthodoxy. But Trump’s victory was no fluke whereas Brexit was. The Trump underpinnings to victory were seeded long ago by a mutual debasement of the political class by left, and right, in the US.

Renzi’s referendum is a vote by Italy to remain Italian and avoid changing the political class system. The very constraints that lead to a stagnant economy and political system with uneven distribution of wealth was maintained. This was therefore not a vote against the establishment at all. It was a successful defense of it. Yes, the right-wing anti-EU Beppa Grillo party gains, but that is a by-product of the actual referendum structure due to Renzi foolishly linking his position to the result and is subsequent decision to resign. Even the Economist questioned the whole structure of the referendum last week.  

In today’s US print edition of the Wall Street Journal someone from an Italian lobby and public affairs group Pedesta is quoted as saying that “The antiestablishment feeling is stronger than the desire to reform.” This is classic Italian as it is jargon. Antiestablishment is about reform, massive reform. So establishment was thus assured! He goes on, “There is a reluctance to change, an innate conservatism in Italy.” Italy is not conservative; such policies have just been rejected.  

The other thing that happened was that Renzi was marginally pro-EU and he suggested that his polices would help Italy and so help the EU. He also foolishly tied his position to Sunday’s results, as if his own popularity was enough to sway the establishment. It was not. So his announced resignation opens the door for disruption and even the comedian-cum-politician. But it is not as if Italian’s were voting against Renzi. They were voting to protect the status-quo.

France’s and Germany’s elections are different. They either may undo the EU at a strike. If either in-office party looses to an extreme left or right, we might end up with a whole new ball game. 2016 may have been the unscrewing of Pandora’s lid. 2017 could well be the opening up of it.
And don’t think Greece is out of the picture. More loans are coming/needed yet some counties have already said no more. See Greece, Creditors Get Back on a Collison Course.

   

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