The Opinion piece in the US print edition of the Wall Street Journal, by Peggy Noonan, captures nicely the conundrum faced by the Republican party. The piece is called, The Republican Party is Shattering. The grass roots vote seems firmly behind Trump, yet the establishment will do whatever it can to prevent him from winning that party’s presidential nomination. There is talk of a mediated convention, assuming no clear winner emerges beforehand. And there lays the challenge: should the elite, that attend the convention, pick an insider and turn against the grass roots preference? This would likely split the party in two – thus giving the White House to the Democrats.
However, I feel the article does not capture the real choice. Who would have thought that a left wing socialist like Bernie Sanders would have risen and given Hilary Clinton a run for her money? Who would have thought that the UK would have a referendum on staying in the European Union? Who would have thought that a fire cracker and outsider like Trump and Carson, would do so well for so long? The reality is that our nations are going through fundamental changes: trust in the establishment is at an all time low and as a result, folks are keen to grasp at any non-established source of change and even inspiration.
If the Republican Party read its tea leaves and really understood what is was looking at, it would rally around Trump and swamp him with insider-based Vice Presidents. It looks increasingly likely that Trump will arrive at convention in the lead, but by that time Rubio and/or Cruz, should have folded and joined Trump. Hence Trump will always be the winner. But Trump should not be stopped. Indeed the Republican elite need to support him now and en masse.
We should not assume that Trump is a huge risk. He is a wise, clever, shrewd business man. He is also a deal-maker and that means he knows how to politic and influence. How anyone can say otherwise is beyond me. But this does not mean that Trump would take the US to war. It does not mean Trump will say something rash to President Putin, or some other national leader. If the Republican elite got behind Trump, they could help swamp him in all the colors and paint they love that would assuage the need for greasy politics. The risk is that Trump would get fed up with all the grease, and quit after two years as President, due to the pointless need for apparent debate instead of needed action.
Cruz is an insider and too extreme. He would lead the Republican Party to defeat since Clinton, another insider, would win as easily as Obama beat his own insider enemies. The only chance for Cruz to win is if he where to face Sanders – and that won’t happen. Rubio is also an insider and would attract other sectors of the voting masses, perhaps the Latino vote. But he is slipping far behind Trump and Cruz and so Marco will likely need to make an important decision and soon. He should join Trump in the next two weeks.
Trump is trouble: he signals the complete loss of faith and trust in our national structures. We need to reduce our government overheard significantly – only Trump would do that. We need to increase growth in a big way in order to invest in the military and infrastructure without adding to the debt – only Trump can break through the politics and do what needs to take place. We need less politics and more acumen. This is Trump’s currency. The sooner the Republican elite understand this, the sooner they can get behind Trump and ensure a more stable comforting wrap around his exciting and disarming presence. The risk is that if the elite do not, Trump may still win and he may then take his ire out on them.