I was amazed, while reading my The World in 2016 from the Economist, at an article by Federica Mogherini (the EU’s High representative for forein policy) titled, Give Diplomacy a Chance. Here are the two opening sentances from the article:
“The World in 2016 can be a safer place thanks to the deal we reached with Iran in July 2015. The agreement guarentees Iran will not build an atomic bomb, in any circumstances.”
Is it possible that any one, any politician for that matter, could be so dumb as to say that? Has it been too long since Neville Chamberlain, Prime Minister of Britain, implied (in 1938) that his signing of an agreement with Adolf Hitler meant that war would never happen, with “peace for our time“?
Agreements do not guarentee anything – they are agreements and agreements can be broken. Sometimes they are broken and both parties know it; sometimes only one party knows this as the other break the agreement secretly. What is this so called High Representative thinking?
If we can believe the policitians that are critical of the agreement, Iran has plenty of time to move and hide any suspect efforts at developing the materials needed to build a bomb. It seems that there are no immediate and random searches; all “demands” for verification have to be “requested” and over 45 days are preserved to permit the process – plenty of time to move man, machine and materials. So what does the agreement do anyway? If you can believe the politicians, it seems the agreement does little. Either way a politician that is history-aware would never utter such phrases.