We are just a few hours away from Friday’s job report. This is the one – the one report that will make or break the Fed’s decision to “up” the interest rate a week or so later when the Fed meets. If the data is in line with expectations (I am assuming about 220,000-240,000) then we will see the first uptick in US interest rates since 2006. If the jobs number is under 200,00, my guess is that the Fed might stay their hand.
I suggested yesterday that come what may the Fed should stay their hand anyway. I dont think the US economy is strong enough. It the seems that the economists over at Citigroup agree with me. Today Janet Yellen, Fed Chair, was noted as disagreeing with Citogroup which suggested that there was a 65% chance of a US recession in 2016. I had not positioned my analysis this way; I had just concluded that the global economy is not yet strng enough to support a rise in US rates. Check out: Janet Yellen takes issue with Citi’s recession call .
Sometime around 830am eastner (I think that’s the usual time the job report comes out) we will know. I still think there is a chance, given the bad run of corporate earnings, that the jobs report will be lower than expected by the Fed. If so, we will carry on regardless.